Objective: The objective is to develop a Heuristic predictive modeling for state/district level projection map for Covid-19 in India
Link to public calculator: https://mesoscalelab.github.io/covid19/
When the Caring Indians project began, a key question was what will be India’s projected need for medical supplies (ventilators, PPEs, etc) in the coming days. This information, specially with state & district level granularity, was considered crucial to many of the proposed projects. In the absence of proper modeling efforts for India, a team initiated the work of trying to create a model that not only considered a pan-India, but state and district level scenarios. The model being built is a heuristic predictive model that captures the essential trend-lines from open-source data from other nations. Simply-speaking a heuristic model in this case is a statistical rule-based model, which captures the essential aspects of how the viral disease spreads in a large cluster of population, as it is unfurling in the world now.
The model offers a state-wise analysis, which throws up several interesting features of the pandemic wave in India.
Aim of this model is not to be precise, rather to provide a conservative but realistic (in terms of global trends) estimates for the pandemic. This is one model where we hope to have overestimate and be incorrect than correct.
Aloke Kumar https://twitter.com/aalokelab
Santosh Ansumali https://twitter.com/SAnsumali